Supply, not demand, will continue to dictate unit volumes for vehicles in the short-term, even as capital goods investment is seeing an upside breakout, generating higher freight volumes, according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst.
“The factors impacting the market start and end with Covid and its emerging variants,” he said.
Consumer spending on goods will continue to support freight markets, although that will begin to normalize after Omicron, he added. Inflation is also expected to remain elevated, although improvements are emerging in monthly data.
“Finally, the chip shortage, while an ongoing and major problem, is expected to improve through 2022 as new silicon capacity comes online,” he said.
“The take-away message is that market fundamentals continue to be historically strong, and are likely to stay that way deep into 2022.”