ACT: Half of Commercial Truck Sales to Electric Power by 2035

Battery-electric Class 4-8 vehicles show positive total cost of ownership compared to conventional vehicles in three-quarters of the applications examined by ACT Research.

By 2030, the research firm says, that will rise to 100%. By 2040, 30% of those applications will reach price parity between BEV and conventional powertrains.

In fact, reports Heavy Duty Trucking, the firm projects that battery-electric vehicles will make up more than half of the Class 4-8 vehicles sold in the U.S. and Canada by 2035.

These gains will be achieved through compelling business cases, as continuing technology improvements and cost reductions make commercial battery-electric vehicles more attractive. Regulations and incentives can help, but ACT says those aren’t the dominant factor in the growth of commercial BEV market share.

“Everybody’s natural expectation is that low-GVW vehicles would see faster BEV adoption,” said Ann Rundle, who joined ACT Research a little more than a year ago as VP of electrification and autonomy, in an interview. “In fact, the higher adoption in our model is Class 6-7.” ACT sees Class 4-5 shifting more to gasoline engines than BEV as diesel engine systems start to increase in cost as a result of the 2027 EPA lower NOx regulations.

In comparison, for Class 8 tractors, the TCO will favor diesel over electric until those NOx regulations kick in.

Future trends ACT identifies as key in the growth in EV adoption include:

  • Falling costs for batteries and fuel cells
  • Rising costs for diesel powertrains to meet upcoming emissions regulations
  • Improving powertrain efficiency for both internal combustion and EVs
  • Rising battery-pack energy density
  • Zero-emissions sales mandates
  • Bans on internal combustion and/or diesel engines

Full story here.

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