Analyst Paints Picture of Truck Market in 2022

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The global truck market is poised to increase tremendously between now and 2022, Sandeep Karr, global director, automotive & transportation research for Frost & Sullivan, said during a presentation at the 2014 Commercial Vehicle Outlook Conference.

As reported by CCJ Magazine, Frost & Sullivan predicts 4.6 million medium- and heavy-duty truck sales globally by 2022 – up from 2.7 million in 2013.

While demand in BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) is waning, Kar said the focus is shifting to the “Next 11”, which includes countries such as Mexico, Turkey and Indonesia.

Still, China will remain the biggest market for these trucks, but there will be solid growth in North America as well, said Kar.

Demand by type of truck is also changing. Light- and heavy-duty truck demand continues to grow, but the medium-duty truck market is shrinking in terms of market share.

Kar added a new phenomenon is emerging where new and used truck sales are peaking at the same time. “From here on, the future will be more volatile, and equipment cycle length has shrunk making it harder to predict,” he said.

Meanwhile, global demand for natural gas engines will make up about 8.9 percent of market share by 2022, but in North America natural gas engine penetration is predicted to reach 16.8 percent of commercial trucks sold in 2022.

CJ reports, by 2022 Kar predicts that fleets operating in North America should expect an average annual operating cost of $183,000 – or $1.90 per mile – per truck, a 10 percent increase in 2013. But fuel costs will make up 29 percent of that cost in 2022 compared to 33 percent in 2013, while driver wages will increase from 28 percent to 31 percent in that same time. Maintenance costs are forecasted to drop from 11 percent to 9 percent thanks in part to more reliable power equipment.

Meanwhile, engine displacement in North America continues to trend toward smaller engines. Class 8 truck engine size preference was 13.7-14.1 liters in 2011. “That will fall to 13.4-13.7 liters in 2018,” said Kar.

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