ACT: Predicted US Recession to Dampen Class 8 Truck Market

In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research reported that the longer inflation remains elevated, the more aggressively the Fed will respond with higher interest rates, increasing the chances of a sharper decline in economic activity, which will result in fewer commercial vehicles required to facilitate this subdued activity and likely exacerbate downward pressure on spot and contract rates.

The report, which combines ACT’s proprietary data analysis from a wide variety of industry sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report includes a relevant but high-level forecast summary, complete with transportation insights for use by commercial vehicle dealer executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the total US trailer market, used truck sales information, and a review of the US macro economy. 

“We are already seeing the slowest y/y growth in the money supply (M2) since 1995, and that metric will turn negative in coming months.” He continued, Recent economic data are inconclusive: the labor market continues to add jobs at a pace that implies too-hot wage inflation pressures, but the most recent core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) reading indicates inflation may be moderating,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “It is our view the Fed will continue on its course of tighter monetary policy until the data signal unambiguously that inflation is moderating, as still deep-pocketed consumers and businesses drive demand for labor in structurally constrained markets.”

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